Commodity Prices and Currency Movements

Commodity Prices and Currency Movements

Predicting the next move in the markets is the key to making money in trading – but putting this simple concept into action is much harder than it sounds. Professional forex traders have long known that trading currencies requires looking beyond the world of FX. The fact is that currencies are moved by many factors – supply and demand, politics, interest rates, economic growth, and so on.
More specifically, since economic growth and exports are directly related to a country’s domestic industry, it is natural for some currencies to be heavily correlated with commodity prices. The top three currencies that have the tightest correlations with commodities are the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. Other currencies that are also impacted by commodity prices, but have a weaker correlation, are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Knowing which currency is correlated with what commodity and why can help traders understand and predict certain market movements. Here we look at currencies correlated with oil and gold and show you how you can use this information in your trading.
In 2005, oil and gold set record highs and were two of the biggest drivers of currency movements that year. In fact, the dollar reacted very differently across various currencies simply because of that particular currency’s correlation with commodity prices. Therefore, knowing what type of movement to expect in the Canadian dollar if oil prices drop, for example, will definitely help you make smarter decisions.

Oil and the Canadian Dollar

Oil is one of the world’s basic necessities – at least for now, most people in developed countries cannot live without it. In 2005, the price of oil at its peak was close to 65% higher than where it started in January of the same year. Since hitting a high above $70 a barrel in August 2005, oil prices retraced 18%, ending 2005 approximately 40% higher. There was a time when we would expect such volatility only from a penny stock, but this has become our reality. The rise in oil prices has brought a great big smile to the faces of oil producers – and a nice fat boost to their pocketbooks. Oil consumers, on the other hand, have had to pinch pennies throughout the rally. (For further reading, see Getting A Grip On The Cost Of Gas.) As a net oil exporter, Canada has benefited the most from the rally in oil, while Japan – a major net oil importer – has suffered the most.
Over the past three years (2003-2005), the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 80%. Canada is the ninth largest producer of crude oil in the world, and it continues to climb up the list, with production in oil sands increasing regularly. In 2000, Canada surpassed Saudi Arabia as the United States’ most significant oil supplier. Unbeknownst to many, the size of Canada’s oil reserves is second only to those in Saudi Arabia. The geographical proximity between the U.S. and Canada, as well as the growing political uncertainty in the Middle East and South America, makes Canada one of the more desirable places from which the U.S. can import oil. But Canada does not service only U.S. demand. The country’s vast oil resources are beginning to get a lot of attention from China, especially since Canada has recently stumbled upon a new stash of oil after a reclassification of its Alberta oil sands to the “economically recoverable” category. This makes the Canadian dollar one of the currencies best positioned to benefit from an ongoing surge in oil prices.
The chart below shows the clearly positive relationship between oil and the Canadian loonie. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the price of oil actually acts as a leading indicator for the price action in the CAD/USD. Since the traded instrument is the inverse, or USD/CAD, it’s important to note that based on the historical relationship, when oil prices go up, USD/CAD falls.

Oil and the Japanese Economy

At the other end of the spectrum, Japan imports 99% of its oil (compared to the U.S., which imports 50%). It is one of the world’s largest net oil importers. Japan’s lack of domestic sources of energy, and its need to import vast amounts of crude oil, natural gas and other energy resources, makes it particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices. Japan also lacks the flexibility to switch to nuclear power because it is a huge net importer of uranium for its nuclear power plants. In 2003, the country’s dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 79%. Oil provided Japan with 50% of its total energy needs, coal with 17%, nuclear power 14%, natural gas 14%, hydroelectric power 4%, and renewable sources a mere 1.1%. Therefore, when oil prices skyrocket, the Japanese economy suffers.

An Attractive Oil Play: CAD/JPY

Looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. In fact, over the past two years, CAD/JPY has had an 85% positive correlation with oil prices. As we can see in Figure 2 below, more often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to rally, CAD/JPY easily broke the $100 level to hit a high of $105 before reversing. The “Oil vs CAD/JPY” chart also clearly shows the delayed reversal in CAD/JPY – which would have been a perfect trading opportunity.

Going for Gold

Gold traders may also be surprised to hear that trading the Australian dollar is just like trading gold. As the world’s third largest producer of gold, the Australian dollar has an 85% positive correlation with the precious metal. Generally speaking, this means that when gold prices rise, the Australian dollar appreciates as well. The proximity of New Zealand to Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore, the health of New Zealand’s economy is closely tied to the health of the Australian economy, which explains why the NZD/USD and the AUD/USD have had a 96% positive correlation over the past three years (2003-2005). Interestingly enough, the NZD/USD actually has an even stronger correlation with gold than the AUD/USD does – the correlation has been 90% over the past three years.

A weaker, but still important, correlation is that of gold prices and the Swiss franc. The country’s political neutrality and the fact that its currency used to be backed by gold have made the franc the currency of choice in times of political uncertainty. From December 2002 until September 2005, USD/CHF and gold prices had an 85% positive correlation. However, the relationship broke down somewhat in September 2005 as the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold price movements. (For further reading, see The Gold Standard Revisited and What Is Wrong With Gold?)