MCX TRADING ADVICE........

MCX POSTIONAL CALL..... SHORT COPPER ON EVERY RISE.. YOUR SL AT 433 AND TGT 416/415... NOW TRADING AROUND 423.70

POSTIONAL CALLS FOR APRIL 2011

BUY BOMBAYDYING WITH SL 362 FOR TGT 390/399 CMP 371 

BUY EDELWEISS WITH SL 37.30 TGT 44/45/50 CMP 40.25

BUY GIPCL WITH SL 85 TGT 101/103 CMP 93

BUY HCC WITH SL 35.60 TGT 42/46/49 CMP 37.70

BUY HEROHONDA WITH SL 1508 TGT 1650/1690/1720 CMP 1567

BUY MRPL WITH SL 61 TGT 68/72 CMP 64.35

BUY NEYVELILIG WITH SL 101 FOR TGT 115/117 CMP 106.85

BUY TATASTEEL WITH SL 605 FOR TGT 636/640

BUY SESAGOA WITH SL 271 FOR TGT 300/317 ++ 

BUY SHANTIGEAR WITH SL 34.40 TGT 40/42/45 CMP 36.95

BUY TATAELXSI SL 244 TGT 275/280 ++ CMP 256

BUY VIJAYABANK WITH SL 73.30 TGT 89/96 ++ CMP 80.60

BEFORE ENTERING INTO TRADES... TAKE RISK INTO CONSIDERATION...... 

ALL THE BEST...

30 BASIC CHART PATTERNS USED IN TRADING.........

It is important to note that the technical analysis overview provided does not attempt to be a comprehensive treatment of charting or technical analysis methods. There are numerous, well-written books on chart interpretation and technical analysis. A brief and simplistic review of some basic charting concepts are provided for reference or to stimulate further study.
Technical Analysis makes the assumption that history repeats itself. Any trading method or system that works well on a broad sample of historical data, may have validity when applied to future trading environments. One should keep in mind that the markets are dynamic. The forces that motivate price movement are dynamic, and the participants are dynamic. Therefore any system which has performed well on past historic data may decline in value as the evolving dynamics of the markets change over time.
The assumption is made that trading results can be improved when trading skills are improved. This requires practice! Surely any time spent learning to trade on past historical data, will not be wasted when it comes to preparing to trade for the future.

Trendlines

Inclining Trendline
A straight line usually drawn to define an uptrend against or through price bar lows.

Declining Trendline
A straight line usually drawn to define a downtrend against or through price bar highs.

Support
A horizontal floor where interest in buying a commodity is strong enough to overcome the pressure to sell. Therefore a decrease in price is reversed and prices rise once again. Typically, support can be identified on a chart by a previous set of lows.

Resistance
A horizontal ceiling where the pressure to sell is greater than the pressure to buy. Therefore, an increase in price is reversed and prices revert downward. Typically resistance can be located on a chart by a previous set of highs.

Channels

Inclining
The inclining channel is a formation with parallel price barriers along both the price ceiling and floor. Unlike the sideways channel the inclining channel has an increase in both the price ceiling and price floor.

Declining
The declining channel is a formation with parallel price barriers along both the price ceiling and floor. Unlike the sideways channel the declining channel has a decrease in both the price ceiling and price floor.

Horizontal or Sideways
A horizontal or sideways is a formation that features both resistance and support. Support forms the low price bar, while resistance provides the price ceiling.

Triangles

Symmetrical
A formation in which the slope of price highs and lows are converging to a point so as to outline the pattern in a symmetrical triangle. To trade this formation place a buy order on a break up an out of the triangle or a sell order on a break down and out of the triangle.

Non-Symmetrical
A formation in which the slope of price highs and lows are converging to a point so as to outline the pattern in a non-symmetrical triangle. To trade this formation, place a buy order on a break up an out of the triangle or a sell order on a break down and out of the triangle.

Ascending Triangle
A formation in which the slope of price highs and lows come together at a point outlining the pattern of a Right Triangle. The hypotenuse in an Ascending Triangle should be sloping from lower to higher and from left to right. To trade this formation, place a buy order on a break up and out of the triangle or a sell order on a break down and out of the triangle. Ascending triangles, with a prior downtrend, are anticipated to break down and out, rather than up and out.

Descending Triangle
A formation in which the slope of price highs and lows come together at a point outlining the pattern of a Right Triangle. The hypotenuse in an Descending Triangle should be sloping from higher to lower and left to right. To trade this formation, place a buy order on a break up and out of the triangle or a sell order on a break down and out of the triangle. Descending triangles, with a prior uptrend, are anticipated to break up and out, rather than down and out.

Pennants
Similar to a Symmetrical Triangle but generally stubbier or not as elongated. A formation in which the slope of price bar highs and lows are converging to a point so as to outline the pattern in a symmetrical triangle. To trade this formation, you can place orders at both the break up and out of the pennant and break down and out of the pennant.

Wedges

Rising or Inclining
This formation occurs when the slope of price bar highs and lows join at a point forming an inclining wedge. The slope of both lines is up with the lower line being steeper than the higher one. To trade this formation, place an order on a break up and out of the wedge or a sell order on a break down and out the wedge. Rising wedges, with a prior downtrend are anticipated to break down and out, rather than up and out.

Falling or Declining
This formation occurs when the slope of price bar highs and lows join at a point forming an declining wedge. The slope of both lines is down with the upper line being steeper than the lower one. To trade this formation, place an order on a break up and out of the wedge or a sell order on a break down and out the wedge. Falling wedges, with a prior uptrend, are anticipated to break up and out, rather than down and out.

Flags

Bull Flag
A formation consisting of a small number of price bars where the slope of price bar highs and lows are parallel and declining. Bull Flags are identified by their characteristic pattern and by the context of the prior trend. In the case of a Bull Flag the trend leading to the formation of the Bull Flag is up. To trade this formation, place orders on the break up and break down points, leaving your unfilled order as your stop loss.

Bear Flag
A formation consisting of a small number of price bars in which the slope of price bar highs and lows are parallel and inclining. Bear Flags are identified by their characteristic pattern and by the context of the prior trend. In the case of a Bear Flag the trend leading to the formation of the Bear Flag is down. To trade this formation, place buy and sell orders on the break up and down of the flag, leaving the unfilled order as your stop loss.

Top and Bottom Formations
1-2-3 (A-B-C) Top
Anticipates a change in trend from up to down on a break below the number 2 point.

1-2-3 (A-B-C) Bottom
Anticipates a change in trend from down to up on a break above the number 2 point.

Head and Shoulders Top
Anticipates a decline on a break below the Neckline.

Head and Shoulders Bottom
Anticipates a rise in prices on a break above the Neckline.

Double Top
Anticipates a change in trend from up to down.

Double Bottom
Anticipates a change in trend for down to up.

Triple Top
Anticipates a change in trend from up to down.

Triple Bottom
Anticipates a change in trend from down to up.

Rounded Top
Anticipates a change in trend from up to down.

Rounded Bottom
Anticipates a change in trend from down to up.

Congestions
Generally refers to any type of chart pattern in which prices are temporarily trapped in a trading range. The range can be converging, expanding or defined by parallel lines on the horizontal. Congestions of shorter duration are usually found to be a variation of a Flag, or some variation of a converging or expanding triangle. Periods of longer congestion are usually defined by a variation of a converging or expanding triangle, or may be an elongated parallel channel on the horizontal. Such patterns are frequently referred to being Continuation patterns if price break out in the direction of the trend leading to the formation of the congestion pattern.
Continuation Patterns
Periods of longer congestion are usually defined by a variation of a converging or expanding triangle, or may be an elongated parallel channel on the horizontal. Such patterns are frequently referred to being continuation patterns if price break out in the direction of the trend leading to the formation of the congestion pattern.

Gaps

Breakaway Gaps
Occur when prices gap higher or lower out of a congestion pattern in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Measuring or Running Gaps
Difficult to identify, but usually occur at the midpoint in a price rally or decline.

Exhaustion Gaps
Occur at the end of a market trend, usually after steep accelerated uptrend or downtrend. The gap can leave one price bar or a small number of congestive price bars behind.

OR

Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci Retracement levels correspond percentage retracements that occur in the ebb and flow of a market trend. According to the Elliot Wave Theory, market trends tend to occur in five distinct waves: three waves that move in the direction of the trend with the middle or third wave being the strongest usually, alternating against two counter-trend waves. Elliot asserted that these counter-trend waves will usually retrace against the trending waves by 38.2, 50 and 61.8 percent (also, less frequently by 24 and 76 percent). These Retracement Percentages correspond to natural ratios discovered by the Greeks called the Golden Ratio and rediscovered by Fibonacci, a medieval, Italian Mathematician.

MCX TRADING ADVICE...

BUY NICKEL AT 1198/95 LVLS SL BELOW 1186 TGT 1212/1221/1244  CMP 1198

MCX TRADING ADVICE

buy copper at cmp 437.50 sl below 435 tgt 441/446 intra + positonal

What's the Difference between 1 Gold Karat, 1 Diamond Carat and 1 Troy Ounce?

What's the Difference between 1 Gold Karat, 1 Diamond Carat and 1 Troy Ounce?

You have no doubt read countless articles on the price of gold costing “x dollars per ounce”, own a gold ring or some other piece of gold jewellery and/or wear or have bought/plan to buy a diamond ring but do you really understand what exactly what you are buying? What’s the difference between 1 troy ounce of gold and 1 (regular) ounce? What’s the difference between 18 and 10 karat gold? What’s the difference between a .75 and a 1.0 carat diamond? Let me explain.

Definition of “Karat”

The term used to describe the unit of measurement for the proportion of gold (i.e. % purity of the gold content) in a piece of jewellery, coin, ingot or bar as per the above table.

Gold will often be mixed with “filler metals” such as silver, palladium, platinum, nickel and even copper to combat the softness of pure 24 karat. Gold which contains a degree of silver, platinum or palladium is referred to as ”white gold” and will classify with a higher amount of karats while the presence of nickel leads to a slightly lower designation of karats. Copper is used to give gold durability and give it a golden rosy tone. Below is a table outlining the karat designations at various gold purity levels plus the extent of ”fineness” as is used in some countries such  as Italy. 

Karat/Fineness	Gold Content [Purity]
24 karat	99+%
22 karat/917	91.6%
21 karat	87.5%
20 karat	83.3%
18 karat/750	75.0%
15 karat	62.5%
14 karat/583	58.5%
10 karat/417	41.7%
9 karat	37.5%
8 karat	33.3%
1 karat	4.2%

(In some countries “karat” and “carat” are used almost interchangeably although, strictly speaking, the words’ correct meanings are as defined in this article where “carat” refers to the weight of a gemstone (see below). The correct word to use when referring to the weight of an object of gold, silver or other precious metals is to speak in terms of troy ounces as below, kilos or metric tonnes.)

100% pure gold is defined as having a purity of 24 karats so if something is 24 karat gold then it’s made of gold and nothing else – regardless of size… Gold is a relatively soft metal and high-karat gold tends to be easily damaged and, as such, a 24 karat item is usually reserved for display or ceremonial use as the picture of me with “my” 100kg. Canadian Maple Leaf 99.99999% pure gold coin which is now worth in excess of $4,500,000 USD! (100kg. x 32.1507466 troy oz. x $1,400/ozt. USD)

All jewellery is required by law to be stamped so consumers will know the quality of gold used. Jewellery made in North America is typically marked with the karat grade (10K, 14K, etc.), and jewelry made in Italy is typically marked with the “fineness” such as (417, 583, etc.). Most retail gold items have a karat rating in the range 9 to 18. In the U.S. the minimum karat value for an item to be sold as gold jewelry is 10. In the UK 9 karat is more common.

The number 24 may have originally been chosen to represent pure gold because it divides evenly by 2,3,4,6 8 and 12. Thus it’s easy to talk about a gold item being half pure (12 kt), two thirds pure (16kt) etc. Nine karat would thus be three eighths gold, 18 karat would be six eighths (three quarters).

Definition of a “Troy” Ounce

The troy ounce (ozt) is a unit of imperial measure most commonly used to gauge the weight and therefore the price of precious metals. One troy ounce is equivalent to 1.09714 avoirdupois (our conventional every day measurement) ounces i.e. 9.714% greater in weight and 1 kg. consists of 32.1507466 troy oz. Please keep the distinction between ounces and troy ounces in mind when buying small quantities of gold and/or silver.

Definition of “Carat”

The term used to describe the unit of weight of a gemstone, including diamonds, where 1 carat = 200 milligrams or one-fifth of a gram. Smaller diamonds are often expressed as points, not carats where 100 points = 1 carat (i.e. each point equals 0.01, or one-hundredth, of a carat).

Origin of the Word “Carat”

The word “carat” is derived from the Greek “keration,” meaning fruit of the “carob” tree. Because the seeds of the carob were uniform in size, they became a unit of measure of fine gemstones. Since an average carob seed weighs 200 milligrams, the weight of 1 carat was set at 200 milligrams.

“Carat” Abbreviations

The abbreviation ct is a shortened way to write carat, and refers to the weight of a single diamond. The abbreviation ct TW means carat total weight, and is used to express the total weight of multiple diamonds used in a piece of jewelry.

“Carat” Weight vs. Size

Carat weight is used as a measure for other gemstones as well but different gems of the same weight aren’t necessarily the same size, because some gemstones are more dense than others–meaning that they pack more weight into a smaller space.

Two diamonds of equal carat weight can have very different costs based on other factors (such as cut, color, and clarity). In understanding the importance of carat weight it is important to know who you are dealing with.

As the carat size of a diamond increases, the diamond’s price increases at an increasing rate. Why? Because the larger the diamond, the more increasingly rare it is. Fewer than one in one million mined rough stones are large enough to produce a finished 1 carat diamond so, as carat weight increases, you will typically pay more not only in total, but on a price-per-carat basis as well.

Conclusion

You now have a better understanding of the meanings of the words “karat” and “carat” (I can only assume that you already knew the meaning of the more familiar word “carrot”!) and the difference between a “troy ounce’ and just an “ounce” which should ensure that you are never misled when reading about or considering the purchase of any item in which such terms are (often loosely) used.

MCX TRADING ADVICE...

BUY ALUMINIUM OR ALUMINI WITH SL AROUND 112.9.. NOW TRADING AROUND 114.80 LVLS... PICK IN EVERY DIP WITH SL 112.90 FOR TGT  117.30/119.30/121

Commodites and the U.S. Dollar Index Correlation

Commodities and the U.S. Dollar

The inverse relationship between bonds and commodity prices and the positive relationship between bonds and equities have been examined. Now the important role the dollar plays in the intermarket picture will be considered. As mentioned in the previous chapter, it is often said that a rising dollar is considered bullish for bonds and stocks and that a falling dollar is considered bearish for both financial markets. However, that statement doesn't always hold up when examined against the historical relationship of the dollar to both markets. The statement also demonstrates the danger of taking shortcuts in intermarket analysis and the necessity to refer to the experts via some job search websites not to become a loser.

The relationship of the dollar to bonds and stocks makes more sense, and holds up much better, when factored through the commodity markets. In other words, there is a path through the four sectors. Let's start with the stock market and work backwards. The stock market is sensitive to interest rates and hence movements in the bond market. The bond market is influenced by inflation expectations, which are demonstrated by the trend of the commodity markets. The inflationary impact of the commodity markets is largely determined by the trend of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we begin our intermarket analysis with the dollar. The path to take is from the dollar to the commodity markets, then from the commodity markets to the bond market, and finally from the bond market to the stock market.

THE DOLLAR MOVES INVERSELY TO COMMODITY PRICES

A rising dollar is noninflationary. As a result a rising dollar eventually produces lower commodity prices. Lower commodity prices, in turn, lead to lower interest rates and higher bond prices. Higher bond prices are bullish for stocks. A falling dollar has the exact opposite effect; it is bullish for commodities and bearish for bonds and equities. Why, then, can't we say that a rising dollar is bullish for bonds and stocks and just forget about commodities? The reason lies with long lead times in these relationships and with the troublesome question of inflation.

It is possible to have a falling dollar along with strong bond and equity markets. Figure 5.1 shows that after topping out in the spring of 1985, the U.S. dollar dropped for almost three years. During most of that time, the bond market (and the stock market) remained strong while the dollar was falling. More recently, the dollar hit an intermediate bottom at the end of 1988 and began to rally. The bond market, although steady, didn't really explode until May of 1989.

FIGURE 5.1
THE US. DOLLAR VERSUS TREASURY BOND PRICES FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. ALTHOUGH A RISING DOLLAR IS EVENTUALLY BULLISH FOR BONDS AND A FALLING DOLLAR IS EVENTUALLY BEARISH FOR BONDS, LONG LEAD TIMES DIMINISH THE VALUE OF DIRECT COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS. DURING ALL OF 1985 AND MOST OF 1986, BONDS WERE STRONG WHILE THE DOLLAR WAS WEAK.

COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS-THE KEY TO INFLATION

Turns in the dollar eventually have an impact on bonds (and an even more delayed impact on stocks) but only after long lead times. The picture becomes much clearer, however, if the impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks is viewed through the commodity markets. A falling dollar is bearish for bonds and stocks because it is inflationary. However, it takes time for the inflationary effects of a falling dollar to filter through the system. How does the bond trader know when the inflationary effects of the falling dollar are taking hold? The answer is when the commodity markets start to move higher. Therefore, we can qualify the statement regarding the relationship between the dollar and bonds and stocks. A falling dollar becomes bearish for bonds and stocks when commodity prices start to rise. Conversely, a rising dollar becomes bullish for bonds and stocks when commodity prices start to drop.

The upper part of Figure 5.2 compares bonds and the U.S. dollar from 1985 through the third quarter of 1989. The upper chart shows that the falling dollar, which started to drop in early 1985, eventually had a bearish effect on bonds which started to drop in the spring of 1987 (two years later). The bottom part of the chart shows the CRB Index during the same period of time. The arrows on the chart show how the peaks in the bond market correspond with troughs in the CRB Index. It wasn't until the commodity price level started to rally sharply in April 1987 that the bond market started to tumble. The stock market peaked that year in August, leading to the October crash. The inflationary impact of the falling dollar eventually pushed commodity prices higher, which began the topping process in bonds and stocks.

FIGURE 5.2
A COMPARISON OF BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY PRICES (LOWER CHART) FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. A FALLING DOLLAR IS BEARISH FOR BONDS WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE RALLYING. A RISING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR BONDS WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLING. THE INFLATIONARY OR NONINFLATIONARY IMPACT OF THE DOLLAR ON BONDS SHOULD BE FACTORED THROUGH THE COMMODITY MARKETS.

The dollar bottomed as 1988 began. A year later, in December of 1988, the dollar formed an intermediate bottom and started to rally. Bonds were stable but locked in a trading range. Figure 5.3 shows that the eventual upside breakout in bonds was delayed for another six months until May of 1989, which coincided with the bearish breakdown in the CRB Index. The strong dollar by itself wasn't enough to push the bond (and stock) market higher. The bullish impact of the rising dollar on bonds was realized only when the commodity markets began to topple.

FIGURE 5.3
A COMPARISON OF THE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY PRICES (LOWER CHART) FROM LATE 1988 TO LATE 1989. THE BULLISH IMPACT OF THE FIRMING DOLLAR ON THE BOND MARKET WASN'T FULLY FELT UNTIL MAY OF 1989 WHEN COMMODITY PRICES CRASHED THROUGH CHART SUPPORT. TOWARD THE END OF 1989, THE WEAKENING DOLLAR IS BEGINNING TO PUSH COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER, WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO PULL BONDS LOWER.

The sequence of events in May of 1989 involved all three markets. The dollar scored a bullish breakout from a major basing pattern. That bullish breakout in the dollar pushed the commodity prices through important chart support, resuming their bearish trend. The bearish breakdown in the commodity markets corresponded with the bullish breakout in bonds. It seems clear, then, that taking shortcuts is dangerous work. The impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks is an indirect one and usually takes effect after some time has passed. The impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks becomes more pertinent when its more direct impact on the commodity markets is taken into consideration.

What is FOREX Fundamental Analysis......

Forex Fundamental Analysis. Basics

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis in Forex is a type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation of countries to trade currencies more effectively.
It gives information on how the big political and economical events influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by important politicians and economists are known  among the traders as economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves. In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics are the primary to keep an eye on.

What is economic calendar?

Economic calendar is created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous months. It contains next data:
Date — Time — Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous
For example: If the forecast is better than the previous figure, then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies.
But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.
If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America, Japan.
A good example of detailed economic calendar can be found here: Forex Economic Calendar

How to read Forex Economic Calendar?

Whose speeches to keep an eye on?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are watched closely by traders.

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex market?

Interest rate
Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift their assets to that country to gain higher returns.
Employment situation
Decreases in the payroll employment are considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.
Trade balance, budget and treasury budget
A country that has a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is reported quarterly and is followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
A high GDP figure is usually followed by expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the currency.
 
Less powefull economic indicators are:
Retail sales
It is the first real indicator of the strength of consumer expenditure.
Durable goods
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates, which is usually supportive for a currency.

How do traders use all this?

There are few useful tips that can be followed:1. Keep an economic calendar on hand. Watch for the events when data are due to be released.
2. Know what indicator is gaining the most of attention at any given time as it becomes a catalyst for future price moves. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak traders will watch closely the inflation indicator. 
3. When the difference between the expectations and real results occur, watch for corrections in the market price moves.
4. Pay attention to news revisions if any, the situation on the market can change quickly.

FOREX Fundamentals

What moves EUR/USD?

US economic indicators by Rank:

1. US Non Farm Payroll — measures new jobs created in States.
2. Interest rates — FOMC rate decisions.

3. US Trade Balance, European Trade Balance — a proportion between exports and imports in US economy.
4. U.S. Current Account
5. US Treasury Inflow Capital (TIC) Data — a measure of how much foreign buying of country's securities takes place.   

6. US Gross domestic product (GDP) — a measurement of growth in economy.
7. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decisions — data about changes in currency rates. 

8. US Retail Sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.

9. Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation in Europe. 

Note, that because the US dollar is involved in over 80% of all currency trades, US economic data tends to be the most important in the Forex market.

What moves USD/JPY?

Besides US economic indicators, there are important data of Japan economy with its indicators:
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting — decides on measures to preserve strength of the currency.
Japanese Trade Balance — Japanese imports versus exports.
Gross domestic product (GDP) — growth in an economy.
Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation.
Industrial production index — a measure of activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector
Retail sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.
Tankan report — assessment of Japanese business conditions: proportion of "optimistic" businesses to "pessimistic" ones.
Unemployment rate

Fundamentals for GBP/USD

All US economic indicators should be watched plus:
UK Housing Prices — number one indicator for Pound, UK Housing Prices are primary gauge of inflation in the UK.  

Bank of England Meeting — provides an outline of monetary policy and changes to currency interest rates.
UK Unemployment rate
UK Retail Sales

 

How to Read Forex Economic Calender............

How to read Forex Economic Calendar

Impact factor — suggests how much influence current economic data is expected to bring along.

It is important to know the time of High impact data release if you trade affected currency pair.
During actual news release market becomes volatile. The strength of the volatility depends on the "factor of surprise" brought in the news. "Factor of surprise" can be defined as a level of unexpectedness, where traders compare Forecast data to Actually released data.

Medium impact economic data should also be kept in mind in case the factor of surprise turns to be high. Low impact data most of the time do not shift Forex market significantly.

Column Previous in Forex Calendar — provides data from last release.
Column Forecast indicates numbers that economists are predicting and expecting for the upcoming release today.

Column Actual is updated only after the data is out. At the very second when data becomes available it is instantly compared against Forecast values,and depending on overall positiveness or negativeness of the news for the currency plus taking into consideration the factor of surprise, price dips or rises in a matter of seconds.

 Economic News impact — increased market volatility — usually lasts for 1-3 minutes (highest volatility); next 5-10 minutes market experiences corrective/adaptive volatility, where price settles in summarizing new market shift.

 

Investors Prepare for Housing and Growth Data from the U.S., while Eyes Remain on Libya and Japan

The U.S. economy returns back with more fundamentals this upcoming week, where data from the housing market and growth will dominate this week’s headlines from the world’s largest economy, while investors will be also keeping a close eye on the developments in Libya, also, investors will be watching closely how the situation unfolds in Japan.

The start will be with the housing market, where the existing home sales index will be released for the month of February, and expectations show that existing home sales probably dropped by 4.5 percent, however, the new home sales index is expected to show a rise in February, where this clearly highlights the instability in housing market activities, since the housing market is still struggling to recover from its worst slump in more than seven decades.

The housing market continues to show mixed signals, nevertheless, overall activities in the sector remain weak amid elevated unemployment, tightened credit conditions, and ongoing foreclosures, where all continue to weigh down heavily on housing market activities.

Meanwhile, the durable goods orders are expected to show a rise in February, where durable goods have been also fluctuating over the past period, where although demand levels are improving, yet demand remains relatively weak, and accordingly, durable goods orders continue to show high fluctuations.

The weekly jobless claims are also due on Thursday, where conditions in the labor market seem to have improved over the past few months, nevertheless, unemployment is still elevated, and accordingly, economic activities are still somewhat weak, where elevated unemployment directly affect income levels, and accordingly, spending remains somewhat weak.

Spending has been improving at a moderate pace over the past period, and accordingly, economic growth also improved, since spending accounts for nearly two thirds of economic growth in the United States, nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook is forcing consumers to remain cautious, although compared to last year, economic conditions improved noticeably.

The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to release the final estimate for Gross Domestic Product for the fourth and final quarter of 2010, where the Commerce Department is expected to show that the U.S. economy expanded by 3.0 percent in the final three months of 2010, as consumer spending rose by 4.1 percent.

The U.S. economy is still recovering from its worst recession since the Great Depression, where the recovery started last year, nevertheless, the recovery was too gradual and too slow in 2010, and accordingly, several sectors failed to show strong performance, however, the U.S. economy seems to have picked up some pace towards the end of 2010, and this momentum continued throughout the first quarter of 2011, and accordingly, the recovery gained some momentum, and it seems this year is going to be much better than last year.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan will release its final estimate for consumer confidence for the month of March, where consumer confidence is expected to be revised slightly lower to 68.0 from the prior reported estimate of 68.2.

Investors should keep a close eye on the developments around the globe, where the situation in Libya on one hand continues to dominate investors, especially oil markets, where the U.N. authorized last week a no-fly zone and military attacks on pro-Gaddafi troops, which provided oil prices with some momentum to rise.

On the other hand, the situation in Japan continues to dominate headlines after the 9.0 magnitude earthquake which resulted in a huge tsunami wave, caused huge destruction including damage to nuclear reactors, which ignited a nuclear plant crisis, where investors indulged in a huge selling wave all around the globe, as the crisis continued to escalate amid rising radiation levels released from the damaged reactors.

The crisis forced the G7 to act last week, where the G7 followed the lead of the Bank of Japan and intervened in markets in order to ease fears after the Japanese Yen rose to a record high against the U.S. dollar, however, as the G7 announced their intervention plan, investors were encouraged to invest in risky assets again.

taken from ecpulse

Gold surge as G-7 intervenes to weaken the yen

The Group of Seven decided today to intervene in a coordinated and cooperative manner into the Forex market selling the Japanese yen against the dollar as an attempt to help the Japanese economy and work to reduce the value of the yen, which reached its highest level since the Second World War after the devastating earthquake that hit Japan On March 11 which caused the emergence of the possibility of a nuclear catastrophe.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose in trading to $1,420.07 an ounce compared with the opening levels of $1,403.85 an ounce, while setting a high of $1,423.80 an ounce and a low of $1,401.92 an ounce. Futures rose 1.19% to trade at $1,420.900 an ounce.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the currency against six-majors, traded lower at 75.855, compared with the opening levels of 76.131, while setting a high of 76.256 and a low of 75.756. Gold usually moves inversely with the dollar as commodities are a dollar weighted index.

Tensions in markets started to ease, albeit at a slight extent, reviving demand on shares on hopes the Japanese nuclear radiation leaks will be trimmed.

Japanese experts are trying to lower that radiations leaking from reactor number 4 of Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant, where the woes pushed the yen to record high against the dollar yesterday before its rebound.

The S&P GSCI index closed trading at 700.43; higher by 22.92 percent, while the RJ/CRB commodity index closed at 349.51, after gaining 0.84 percent.

Major Metal Fixing

As for metal Fixes (Mar 18); Gold fixed at AM Fix was set at $1,415.50 an ounce while the PM fixing (MAR 17) was set at $1,403.75 an ounce; meanwhile silver fixing was set at $35.15000 an ounce and Platinum AM Fixing (Mar 18) was set at $1,719.00 an ounce, and at 1,720.00 an ounce during the PM fixing (Mar 18); finally ending with Palladium AM fixing set at $722.00 at (Mar 18) AM fixing, while the PM fixing (Mar 18) was set at $727.00 an ounce.

Other Metals

Silver for immediate delivery traded at $35.17 an ounce compared with the opening levels of $34.24 an ounce, while setting a high of $35.39 an ounce and a low of $34.23 an ounce. Silver future contracts traded higher by 2.78% or 0.952 to trade at 35.210 an ounce

Platinum for immediate delivery traded higher by $12.0, at $1,715.50 an ounce, while Palladium gained by $21.0 to trade at $726.50 an ounce.

MCX ADVICE..ON ZINC

POSITIONAL BUY ZINC/ZINC MINI WITH SL AROUND 103 LEVELS FOR TGT 107.20/108.90/111.50/112.70  NOW TRADING AROUND 105 LEVELS... PICK IN EVERY DIP..

PLEASE BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS(MULTIPLE LOT HOLDERS) AFTER ACHIVING TGT AND SINGLE LOT HOLDERS TRAIL YOUR PROFITS FOR FINAL TGT

Commodity Prices and Currency Movements

Commodity Prices and Currency Movements

Predicting the next move in the markets is the key to making money in trading – but putting this simple concept into action is much harder than it sounds. Professional forex traders have long known that trading currencies requires looking beyond the world of FX. The fact is that currencies are moved by many factors – supply and demand, politics, interest rates, economic growth, and so on.
More specifically, since economic growth and exports are directly related to a country’s domestic industry, it is natural for some currencies to be heavily correlated with commodity prices. The top three currencies that have the tightest correlations with commodities are the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. Other currencies that are also impacted by commodity prices, but have a weaker correlation, are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Knowing which currency is correlated with what commodity and why can help traders understand and predict certain market movements. Here we look at currencies correlated with oil and gold and show you how you can use this information in your trading.
In 2005, oil and gold set record highs and were two of the biggest drivers of currency movements that year. In fact, the dollar reacted very differently across various currencies simply because of that particular currency’s correlation with commodity prices. Therefore, knowing what type of movement to expect in the Canadian dollar if oil prices drop, for example, will definitely help you make smarter decisions.

Oil and the Canadian Dollar

Oil is one of the world’s basic necessities – at least for now, most people in developed countries cannot live without it. In 2005, the price of oil at its peak was close to 65% higher than where it started in January of the same year. Since hitting a high above $70 a barrel in August 2005, oil prices retraced 18%, ending 2005 approximately 40% higher. There was a time when we would expect such volatility only from a penny stock, but this has become our reality. The rise in oil prices has brought a great big smile to the faces of oil producers – and a nice fat boost to their pocketbooks. Oil consumers, on the other hand, have had to pinch pennies throughout the rally. (For further reading, see Getting A Grip On The Cost Of Gas.) As a net oil exporter, Canada has benefited the most from the rally in oil, while Japan – a major net oil importer – has suffered the most.
Over the past three years (2003-2005), the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 80%. Canada is the ninth largest producer of crude oil in the world, and it continues to climb up the list, with production in oil sands increasing regularly. In 2000, Canada surpassed Saudi Arabia as the United States’ most significant oil supplier. Unbeknownst to many, the size of Canada’s oil reserves is second only to those in Saudi Arabia. The geographical proximity between the U.S. and Canada, as well as the growing political uncertainty in the Middle East and South America, makes Canada one of the more desirable places from which the U.S. can import oil. But Canada does not service only U.S. demand. The country’s vast oil resources are beginning to get a lot of attention from China, especially since Canada has recently stumbled upon a new stash of oil after a reclassification of its Alberta oil sands to the “economically recoverable” category. This makes the Canadian dollar one of the currencies best positioned to benefit from an ongoing surge in oil prices.
The chart below shows the clearly positive relationship between oil and the Canadian loonie. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the price of oil actually acts as a leading indicator for the price action in the CAD/USD. Since the traded instrument is the inverse, or USD/CAD, it’s important to note that based on the historical relationship, when oil prices go up, USD/CAD falls.

Oil and the Japanese Economy

At the other end of the spectrum, Japan imports 99% of its oil (compared to the U.S., which imports 50%). It is one of the world’s largest net oil importers. Japan’s lack of domestic sources of energy, and its need to import vast amounts of crude oil, natural gas and other energy resources, makes it particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices. Japan also lacks the flexibility to switch to nuclear power because it is a huge net importer of uranium for its nuclear power plants. In 2003, the country’s dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 79%. Oil provided Japan with 50% of its total energy needs, coal with 17%, nuclear power 14%, natural gas 14%, hydroelectric power 4%, and renewable sources a mere 1.1%. Therefore, when oil prices skyrocket, the Japanese economy suffers.

An Attractive Oil Play: CAD/JPY

Looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. In fact, over the past two years, CAD/JPY has had an 85% positive correlation with oil prices. As we can see in Figure 2 below, more often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to rally, CAD/JPY easily broke the $100 level to hit a high of $105 before reversing. The “Oil vs CAD/JPY” chart also clearly shows the delayed reversal in CAD/JPY – which would have been a perfect trading opportunity.

Going for Gold

Gold traders may also be surprised to hear that trading the Australian dollar is just like trading gold. As the world’s third largest producer of gold, the Australian dollar has an 85% positive correlation with the precious metal. Generally speaking, this means that when gold prices rise, the Australian dollar appreciates as well. The proximity of New Zealand to Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore, the health of New Zealand’s economy is closely tied to the health of the Australian economy, which explains why the NZD/USD and the AUD/USD have had a 96% positive correlation over the past three years (2003-2005). Interestingly enough, the NZD/USD actually has an even stronger correlation with gold than the AUD/USD does – the correlation has been 90% over the past three years.

A weaker, but still important, correlation is that of gold prices and the Swiss franc. The country’s political neutrality and the fact that its currency used to be backed by gold have made the franc the currency of choice in times of political uncertainty. From December 2002 until September 2005, USD/CHF and gold prices had an 85% positive correlation. However, the relationship broke down somewhat in September 2005 as the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold price movements. (For further reading, see The Gold Standard Revisited and What Is Wrong With Gold?)

MCX KAPAS ADVICE..

postional buy kapas with sl around 1121 lvls for tgt 1184/1205

MCX TRADING ADVICE...

POSITIONAL CALL BUY MENTHAL OIL WITH SL AT 1121 FOR TGTS 1165/1184/1209... PLEASE MAINTAIN STOPLOSS IN POSTIONALS.. NOW IT IS TRADING NEAR 1144 LVLS.. PICK IN EVERY DIP WITH SL AT 1121... FOR ABOVE MENTIONED TARGETS..

WEEKEND FUN.......JUST RELAX............!

God created the donkey


and said to him.
"You will be a donkey. You will work un-tiringly from sunrise to sunset
carrying burdens on your back. You will eat grass,
you will have no intelligence and you will live 50 years."
The donkey answered:
"I will be a donkey, but to live 50years is much. Give me only 20years"
God granted his wish.
............ .......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ..
!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

God created the dog


and said to him:
"You will guard the house of man. You will be his best Friend.
You will eat the scraps that he gives you and
you will live 30years.
You will be a dog. "
The dog answered:
"Sir, to live 30years is too much,give me only15 years.
" God granted his wish.size=6>
............ ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......
!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
God created the monkey


and said to him:
"You will be a monkey. You will swing from branch to branch doing tricks.
You will be amusing and you will live
20 years. "
The monkey
answered:
"To live 20years is too much, give me only 10years."
God granted his wish.
............. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ..
!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

Finally God created man...

and said to him:
"You will be man, the only rational creature on the face of the earth.
You will use your intelligence to become master over all the animals.
You will dominate the world and you will live 20years."

Man responded:
"Sir, I will be a man but to live only
20 years is very little,
give me the 30years that the donkey refused,
the 15years that the dog did not want and
the 10years the monkey refused.
" God granted man's wish ............. ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .......

And since then, man lives
20 years as a man ,

marries and spends
30 years like a donkey,
working and carrying all the burdens on his back.

Then when his children are grown,
he lives 15years like a dog taking care of the house
and eating whatever is given to him,

so that when he is old,
he can retire and live 10years like a monkey,
going from house to house and from one son or
daughter to another doing tricks to amuse his grandchildren.

That's Life.

INTRADAY CALLS ON MARCH 10 2011

BUY ACC ABOVE 1008.20 SL 1003 TGT 1016/1024

SELL ACC BELOW 1003 SL 1008 TGT 1000/996/993

BUY AMBUJACEM ABOVE 129.50 SL 127.50 TGT 132/135/138 INTRA + SWING TRADERS ( FOR SWING TRADERS KEEP SL AT 126 LVLS CLSING BASIS)

SELL AMBUJACEM BELOW 127.50 SL 129.50 TGT 126.60/125.30

BUY WELCORP ABOVE 191 SL 189 TGT 192.50/196/199 ( INTRA + SWING TRADERS SWING TRADERS HOLD WITH SL 185 )

BUY BGRENERGY ABOVE 465 SL 462 TGT 467.50/473/478/484

SELL BGRENERGY BELOW 462 SL 465 TGT 457/454

ALL THE BEST

SPOT COMMODITY TRADING

spot commodity trading
Commodity prices can single-handedly determine the economic outlook for a number of nations. The currencies of these nations rise and fall because of commodity price moves.
Commodities are also a barometer of economic growth, trade and consumer demand. Understanding the close relationship between raw materials and forex is essential to successful foreign exchange trading.
Listening to what the commodity market has to say can give you trading ideas, warn of potential pitfalls and help you become a better trader.
Knowing the correlations between commodities and currencies can be helpful if you want to speculate on a commodity’s direction. Thinking about going long gold? Go long the Australian dollar instead. The leverage and liquidity in forex trading make currencies a great alternative to trading commodities
Let’s take a look at a few commodities and see how they interrelate with forex.

oil
A substantial part of all international trade is related to crude oil. It is easily the most produced  and traded commodity.
Currency speculators are left out of many oil transactions because most of the world’s big oil exporting nations use the U.S. dollar or have currencies that are difficult to trade. One exception is the Canadian dollar. Canada has the world’s second-largest proven oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia and it has one of the most accessible and liquid currencies.
The Canadian dollar often gets support late in the month as the nation’s massive oil exports are settled. These flows begin around the 22^nd of each month and continue until month’s end. The market may try to anticipate the orders but volatility in the oil market and hedging can lead to unexpected moves.
At times the Canadian dollar trades in near-perfect harmony with oil. The correlations between commodities and currencies are usually expressed as ratios. A 0.99 daily ratio is a virtually perfect correlation, meaning that on 99 of 100 days when oil traded higher, the Canadian dollar did as well.
Very few correlations reach 0.99. The Canadian dollar/oil correlation is usually around 0.80.
All commodity/currency correlations have an ebb and flow that changes over time.  In some months, the Canadian dollar will be up or down together every day. At other times, the Canadian dollar market will be more focused on interest rates, global growth or Canadian economic data.
In general, a localized event – such as a hurricane or pipeline explosion – will not affect the currency market as much as the commodity market.
Instead of watching the front-month commodity future, many professional currency traders watch the third or fourth contract for a clear sense of a commodity’s underlying direction.
Another currency that responds to oil is the Norwegian krone – also known as the Nokkie because its symbol is NOK. Although it’s not as liquid as the Canadian dollar, it is still the tenth most traded currency in the foreign exchange market. Trading the Canadian dollar against the krone is a way to factor out oil and zero in on differences in economic fundamentals between Canada and Norway.

natural gas
When many currency traders think of the Canadian dollar, they think only of oil. In dollar terms, Canada exports 50% less natural gas than oil, meaning that it’s about half as important as oil but still capable of jarring the currency.
Natural gas prices are notoriously volatile. In percentage terms, its average daily move is about double that of oil. It also does not correlate particularly well with oil.
When trading the Canadian dollar and oil, be sure not to overlook natural gas.

gold
Gold and the currency market have been forever linked. Virtually every nation holds a portion of its reserves in gold and it is the ultimate hedge against inflation.
Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of gold and the Australian dollar has a strong correlation with the precious metal. Gold also tends to correlate with the euro.
                                             One tip with gold is to be wary of technicals. It has a long history of creating unmistakable technical patterns that fail to pan out.

copper and base metal
Nothing forecasts the direction of the worldwide economy better than copper and base metals. Renowned commodities trader Dennis Gartman is fond of saying that copper has a masters in economics and base metals has a PhD.
The direction of the worldwide economy is of paramount importance to currency traders. A slump in base metals will spill over into other commodities, stocks and can completely shift trading patterns.
Yen crosses are particularly sensitive to the global economy because of Japan’s role as a leading exporter and because of the carry trade. In particular, the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY crosses will trade alongside copper and base metals.
The Baltic Dry Index is another excellent course of insight into the strength of the global economy. It’s a survey issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange and tracks international shipping prices of various cargoes. Shipping is an excellent indicator of future economic activity.

the u.s. dollar and commodities
It’s important to remember that virtually all commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. All other things being equal, a broad 1% decline in the value of the U.S. dollar will boost every commodity price by 1% and vice versa.
Because of this, the trend in the commodity market will usually be inverse to the trend in the U.S. dollar.
The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index is the most closely-followed index of the broad commodity market. It’s a weighted average of 19 important and actively traded commodities. It’s a great way to see a snapshot of the commodity market that mitigates the volatility of individual commodities.

intraday calls on march 08

sell adanient below 589 lvlsl sl 593.2 tgt 587.. 583 ..577...566...560
CORRECTION

sell hindpetro below 317 sl 319 tgt 315..312.90...311
buy hindpetro above 321 sl 319 tgt 324 ..328

INTRADAY CALLS ON MARCH 7 TH 2011

BUY DIVISLAB ABOVE 619 SL 615 TGT 625/631 +

SELL DIVISLAB BELOW 615 SL 619 TGT 613/609/606 -

BUY ABAN ABOVE 589 SL 585 TGT 594/597/600 +

SELL ABAN BELOW 585 SL 589 TGT  582.50/ 579/576 -