Thursday, March 24, 2011

MCX TRADING ADVICE...

BUY NICKEL AT 1198/95 LVLS SL BELOW 1186 TGT 1212/1221/1244  CMP 1198

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

MCX TRADING ADVICE




buy copper at cmp 437.50 sl below 435 tgt 441/446 intra + positonal

What's the Difference between 1 Gold Karat, 1 Diamond Carat and 1 Troy Ounce?

What's the Difference between 1 Gold Karat, 1 Diamond Carat and 1 Troy Ounce?

You have no doubt read countless articles on the price of gold costing “x dollars per ounce”, own a gold ring or some other piece of gold jewellery and/or wear or have bought/plan to buy a diamond ring but do you really understand what exactly what you are buying? What’s the difference between 1 troy ounce of gold and 1 (regular) ounce? What’s the difference between 18 and 10 karat gold? What’s the difference between a .75 and a 1.0 carat diamond? Let me explain.
Definition of “Karat”
The term used to describe the unit of measurement for the proportion of gold (i.e. % purity of the gold content) in a piece of jewellery, coin, ingot or bar as per the above table.
Gold will often be mixed with “filler metals” such as silver, palladium, platinum, nickel and even copper to combat the softness of pure 24 karat. Gold which contains a degree of silver, platinum or palladium is referred to as ”white gold” and will classify with a higher amount of karats while the presence of nickel leads to a slightly lower designation of karats. Copper is used to give gold durability and give it a golden rosy tone. Below is a table outlining the karat designations at various gold purity levels plus the extent of ”fineness” as is used in some countries such  as Italy. 

Karat/Fineness
Gold Content [Purity]
24 karat
99+%
22 karat/917
91.6%
21 karat
87.5%
20 karat
83.3%
18 karat/750
75.0%
15 karat
62.5%
14 karat/583
58.5%
10 karat/417
41.7%
9 karat
37.5%
8 karat
33.3%
1 karat
4.2%
(In some countries “karat” and “carat” are used almost interchangeably although, strictly speaking, the words’ correct meanings are as defined in this article where “carat” refers to the weight of a gemstone (see below). The correct word to use when referring to the weight of an object of gold, silver or other precious metals is to speak in terms of troy ounces as below, kilos or metric tonnes.)
100% pure gold is defined as having a purity of 24 karats so if something is 24 karat gold then it’s made of gold and nothing else – regardless of size… Gold is a relatively soft metal and high-karat gold tends to be easily damaged and, as such, a 24 karat item is usually reserved for display or ceremonial use as the picture of me with “my” 100kg. Canadian Maple Leaf 99.99999% pure gold coin which is now worth in excess of $4,500,000 USD! (100kg. x 32.1507466 troy oz. x $1,400/ozt. USD)

All jewellery is required by law to be stamped so consumers will know the quality of gold used. Jewellery made in North America is typically marked with the karat grade (10K, 14K, etc.), and jewelry made in Italy is typically marked with the “fineness” such as (417, 583, etc.). Most retail gold items have a karat rating in the range 9 to 18. In the U.S. the minimum karat value for an item to be sold as gold jewelry is 10. In the UK 9 karat is more common.
The number 24 may have originally been chosen to represent pure gold because it divides evenly by 2,3,4,6 8 and 12. Thus it’s easy to talk about a gold item being half pure (12 kt), two thirds pure (16kt) etc. Nine karat would thus be three eighths gold, 18 karat would be six eighths (three quarters).
Definition of a “Troy” Ounce
The troy ounce (ozt) is a unit of imperial measure most commonly used to gauge the weight and therefore the price of precious metals. One troy ounce is equivalent to 1.09714 avoirdupois (our conventional every day measurement) ounces i.e. 9.714% greater in weight and 1 kg. consists of 32.1507466 troy oz. Please keep the distinction between ounces and troy ounces in mind when buying small quantities of gold and/or silver.
Definition of “Carat”
The term used to describe the unit of weight of a gemstone, including diamonds, where 1 carat = 200 milligrams or one-fifth of a gram. Smaller diamonds are often expressed as points, not carats where 100 points = 1 carat (i.e. each point equals 0.01, or one-hundredth, of a carat).
Origin of the Word “Carat”
The word “carat” is derived from the Greek “keration,” meaning fruit of the “carob” tree. Because the seeds of the carob were uniform in size, they became a unit of measure of fine gemstones. Since an average carob seed weighs 200 milligrams, the weight of 1 carat was set at 200 milligrams.
“Carat” Abbreviations
The abbreviation ct is a shortened way to write carat, and refers to the weight of a single diamond. The abbreviation ct TW means carat total weight, and is used to express the total weight of multiple diamonds used in a piece of jewelry.
“Carat” Weight vs. Size
Carat weight is used as a measure for other gemstones as well but different gems of the same weight aren’t necessarily the same size, because some gemstones are more dense than others–meaning that they pack more weight into a smaller space.
Two diamonds of equal carat weight can have very different costs based on other factors (such as cut, color, and clarity). In understanding the importance of carat weight it is important to know who you are dealing with.
As the carat size of a diamond increases, the diamond’s price increases at an increasing rate. Why? Because the larger the diamond, the more increasingly rare it is. Fewer than one in one million mined rough stones are large enough to produce a finished 1 carat diamond so, as carat weight increases, you will typically pay more not only in total, but on a price-per-carat basis as well.
Conclusion
You now have a better understanding of the meanings of the words “karat” and “carat” (I can only assume that you already knew the meaning of the more familiar word “carrot”!) and the difference between a “troy ounce’ and just an “ounce” which should ensure that you are never misled when reading about or considering the purchase of any item in which such terms are (often loosely) used.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

MCX TRADING ADVICE...


BUY ALUMINIUM OR ALUMINI WITH SL AROUND 112.9.. NOW TRADING AROUND 114.80 LVLS... PICK IN EVERY DIP WITH SL 112.90 FOR TGT  117.30/119.30/121

Commodites and the U.S. Dollar Index Correlation

Commodities and the U.S. Dollar


The inverse relationship between bonds and commodity prices and the positive relationship between bonds and equities have been examined. Now the important role the dollar plays in the intermarket picture will be considered. As mentioned in the previous chapter, it is often said that a rising dollar is considered bullish for bonds and stocks and that a falling dollar is considered bearish for both financial markets. However, that statement doesn't always hold up when examined against the historical relationship of the dollar to both markets. The statement also demonstrates the danger of taking shortcuts in intermarket analysis and the necessity to refer to the experts via some job search websites not to become a loser.

The relationship of the dollar to bonds and stocks makes more sense, and holds up much better, when factored through the commodity markets. In other words, there is a path through the four sectors. Let's start with the stock market and work backwards. The stock market is sensitive to interest rates and hence movements in the bond market. The bond market is influenced by inflation expectations, which are demonstrated by the trend of the commodity markets. The inflationary impact of the commodity markets is largely determined by the trend of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we begin our intermarket analysis with the dollar. The path to take is from the dollar to the commodity markets, then from the commodity markets to the bond market, and finally from the bond market to the stock market.

THE DOLLAR MOVES INVERSELY TO COMMODITY PRICES

A rising dollar is noninflationary. As a result a rising dollar eventually produces lower commodity prices. Lower commodity prices, in turn, lead to lower interest rates and higher bond prices. Higher bond prices are bullish for stocks. A falling dollar has the exact opposite effect; it is bullish for commodities and bearish for bonds and equities. Why, then, can't we say that a rising dollar is bullish for bonds and stocks and just forget about commodities? The reason lies with long lead times in these relationships and with the troublesome question of inflation.


It is possible to have a falling dollar along with strong bond and equity markets. Figure 5.1 shows that after topping out in the spring of 1985, the U.S. dollar dropped for almost three years. During most of that time, the bond market (and the stock market) remained strong while the dollar was falling. More recently, the dollar hit an intermediate bottom at the end of 1988 and began to rally. The bond market, although steady, didn't really explode until May of 1989.

FIGURE 5.1
THE US. DOLLAR VERSUS TREASURY BOND PRICES FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. ALTHOUGH A RISING DOLLAR IS EVENTUALLY BULLISH FOR BONDS AND A FALLING DOLLAR IS EVENTUALLY BEARISH FOR BONDS, LONG LEAD TIMES DIMINISH THE VALUE OF DIRECT COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS. DURING ALL OF 1985 AND MOST OF 1986, BONDS WERE STRONG WHILE THE DOLLAR WAS WEAK.

THE US. DOLLAR VERSUS TREASURY BOND PRICES FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. ALTHOUGH
A RISING DOLLAR IS EVENTUALLY BULLISH FOR BONDS AND A FALLING DOLLAR IS
EVENTUALLY BEARISH FOR BONDS, LONG LEAD TIMES DIMINISH THE VALUE OF DIRECT
COMPARISON BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS. DURING ALL OF 1985 AND MOST OF 1986,
BONDS WERE STRONG WHILE THE DOLLAR WAS WEAK

COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS-THE KEY TO INFLATION

Turns in the dollar eventually have an impact on bonds (and an even more delayed impact on stocks) but only after long lead times. The picture becomes much clearer, however, if the impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks is viewed through the commodity markets. A falling dollar is bearish for bonds and stocks because it is inflationary. However, it takes time for the inflationary effects of a falling dollar to filter through the system. How does the bond trader know when the inflationary effects of the falling dollar are taking hold? The answer is when the commodity markets start to move higher. Therefore, we can qualify the statement regarding the relationship between the dollar and bonds and stocks. A falling dollar becomes bearish for bonds and stocks when commodity prices start to rise. Conversely, a rising dollar becomes bullish for bonds and stocks when commodity prices start to drop.


The upper part of Figure 5.2 compares bonds and the U.S. dollar from 1985 through the third quarter of 1989. The upper chart shows that the falling dollar, which started to drop in early 1985, eventually had a bearish effect on bonds which started to drop in the spring of 1987 (two years later). The bottom part of the chart shows the CRB Index during the same period of time. The arrows on the chart show how the peaks in the bond market correspond with troughs in the CRB Index. It wasn't until the commodity price level started to rally sharply in April 1987 that the bond market started to tumble. The stock market peaked that year in August, leading to the October crash. The inflationary impact of the falling dollar eventually pushed commodity prices higher, which began the topping process in bonds and stocks.

FIGURE 5.2
A COMPARISON OF BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY PRICES (LOWER CHART) FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. A FALLING DOLLAR IS BEARISH FOR BONDS WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE RALLYING. A RISING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR BONDS WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLING. THE INFLATIONARY OR NONINFLATIONARY IMPACT OF THE DOLLAR ON BONDS SHOULD BE FACTORED THROUGH THE COMMODITY MARKETS.

A COMPARISON OF BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY PRICES
(LOWER CHART) FROM 1985 THROUGH 1989. A FALLING DOLLAR IS BEARISH FOR BONDS
WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE RALLYING. A RISING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR BONDS
WHEN COMMODITY PRICES ARE FALLING. THE INFLATIONARY OR NONINFLATIONARY
IMPACT OF THE DOLLAR ON BONDS SHOULD BE FACTORED THROUGH THE COMMODITY
MARKETS

The dollar bottomed as 1988 began. A year later, in December of 1988, the dollar formed an intermediate bottom and started to rally. Bonds were stable but locked in a trading range. Figure 5.3 shows that the eventual upside breakout in bonds was delayed for another six months until May of 1989, which coincided with the bearish breakdown in the CRB Index. The strong dollar by itself wasn't enough to push the bond (and stock) market higher. The bullish impact of the rising dollar on bonds was realized only when the commodity markets began to topple.

FIGURE 5.3
A COMPARISON OF THE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY PRICES (LOWER CHART) FROM LATE 1988 TO LATE 1989. THE BULLISH IMPACT OF THE FIRMING DOLLAR ON THE BOND MARKET WASN'T FULLY FELT UNTIL MAY OF 1989 WHEN COMMODITY PRICES CRASHED THROUGH CHART SUPPORT. TOWARD THE END OF 1989, THE WEAKENING DOLLAR IS BEGINNING TO PUSH COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER, WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO PULL BONDS LOWER.

A COMPARISON OF THE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR (UPPER CHART) AND COMMODITY
PRICES (LOWER CHART) FROM LATE 1988 TO LATE 1989. THE BULLISH IMPACT OF THE
FIRMING DOLLAR ON THE BOND MARKET WASN'T FULLY FELT UNTIL MAY OF 1989 WHEN
COMMODITY PRICES CRASHED THROUGH CHART SUPPORT. TOWARD THE END OF 1989,
THE WEAKENING DOLLAR IS BEGINNING TO PUSH COMMODITY PRICES HIGHER, WHICH
ARE BEGINNING TO PULL BONDS LOWER

The sequence of events in May of 1989 involved all three markets. The dollar scored a bullish breakout from a major basing pattern. That bullish breakout in the dollar pushed the commodity prices through important chart support, resuming their bearish trend. The bearish breakdown in the commodity markets corresponded with the bullish breakout in bonds. It seems clear, then, that taking shortcuts is dangerous work. The impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks is an indirect one and usually takes effect after some time has passed. The impact of the dollar on bonds and stocks becomes more pertinent when its more direct impact on the commodity markets is taken into consideration.

What is FOREX Fundamental Analysis......

Forex Fundamental Analysis. Basics

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis in Forex is a type of market analysis which involves studying of the economic situation of countries to trade currencies more effectively.
It gives information on how the big political and economical events influence currency market. Figures and statements given in speeches by important politicians and economists are known  among the traders as economical announcements that have great impact on currency market moves. In particular, announcements related to United States economy and politics are the primary to keep an eye on.

What is economic calendar?

Economic calendar is created by economists where they predict different economics figures and values according to previous months. It contains next data:
Date — Time — Currency — Data Released — Actual — Forecast — Previous
For example: If the forecast is better than the previous figure, then US dollar usually is going to strengthen against other currencies.
But when news are due, traders have to check the actual data.
If to look at oil prices, a rising price will result in weakening of currencies for countries which depend on huge oil import, e.g. America, Japan.
A good example of detailed economic calendar can be found here: Forex Economic Calendar

How to read Forex Economic Calendar?

Whose speeches to keep an eye on?

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of USA, Secretary of the Treasury, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and so on. Speeches of those prominent people are watched closely by traders.

What are the most powerful figures that move Forex market?

Interest rate
Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, its currency will strengthen because investors will shift their assets to that country to gain higher returns.
Employment situation
Decreases in the payroll employment are considered as signs of a weak economic activity that could eventually lead to lower interest rates, which has negative impact on the currency.
Trade balance, budget and treasury budget
A country that has a significant Trade Balance deficit will generally have a weak currency as there will be continuous commercial sellings of its currency.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is reported quarterly and is followed very closely as it is a primary indicator of the strength of economic activity.
A high GDP figure is usually followed by expectations of higher interest rates, which is mostly positive for the currency.
 
Less powefull economic indicators are:
Retail sales
It is the first real indicator of the strength of consumer expenditure.
Durable goods
Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates, which is usually supportive for a currency.

How do traders use all this?

There are few useful tips that can be followed:1. Keep an economic calendar on hand. Watch for the events when data are due to be released.
2. Know what indicator is gaining the most of attention at any given time as it becomes a catalyst for future price moves. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak traders will watch closely the inflation indicator. 
3. When the difference between the expectations and real results occur, watch for corrections in the market price moves.
4. Pay attention to news revisions if any, the situation on the market can change quickly.




FOREX Fundamentals

What moves EUR/USD?

US economic indicators by Rank:

1. US Non Farm Payroll — measures new jobs created in States.
2. Interest rates — FOMC rate decisions.

3. US Trade Balance, European Trade Balance — a proportion between exports and imports in US economy.
4. U.S. Current Account
5. US Treasury Inflow Capital (TIC) Data — a measure of how much foreign buying of country's securities takes place.   

6. US Gross domestic product (GDP) — a measurement of growth in economy.
7. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decisions — data about changes in currency rates.
 

8. US Retail Sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.

9. Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation in Europe. 

Note, that because the US dollar is involved in over 80% of all currency trades, US economic data tends to be the most important in the Forex market.

What moves USD/JPY?

Besides US economic indicators, there are important data of Japan economy with its indicators:
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting — decides on measures to preserve strength of the currency.
Japanese Trade Balance — Japanese imports versus exports.
Gross domestic product (GDP) — growth in an economy.
Consumer price index (CPI) — a measure of inflation.
Industrial production index — a measure of activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector
Retail sales — a measure of strength of consumer expenditure.
Tankan report — assessment of Japanese business conditions: proportion of "optimistic" businesses to "pessimistic" ones.
Unemployment rate

Fundamentals for GBP/USD

All US economic indicators should be watched plus:
UK Housing Prices — number one indicator for Pound, UK Housing Prices are primary gauge of inflation in the UK.  

Bank of England Meeting — provides an outline of monetary policy and changes to currency interest rates.
UK Unemployment rate
UK Retail Sales